{"id":13979,"date":"2023-09-15T18:55:49","date_gmt":"2023-09-15T18:55:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/latinosreadytovote.org\/?p=13979"},"modified":"2023-09-15T18:55:49","modified_gmt":"2023-09-15T18:55:49","slug":"three-reasons-biden-is-struggling-with-black-and-latino-voters","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latinosreadytovote.org\/?p=13979","title":{"rendered":"Three reasons Biden is struggling with Black and Latino voters"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

A recent spate of polling paints a bad picture of declining support for the president from voters of color. But just how worrisome is it?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Christian Paz<\/a><\/strong><\/em>, Vox<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Then-candidate Joe Biden at a Hispanic Heritage Month event in 2020. He\u2019s not campaigning anymore. Time for some results. (Patrick Semansky \/ Associated Press) <\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Though we\u2019re still more than a year out from the 2024 presidential election<\/a>, the season for Democratic \u201cbedwetting\u201d<\/a> has come early this cycle. Leading the apparent panic<\/a> this month are a series of polls and accompanying analysis<\/a> showing something that\u2019s been pretty obvious for some time: Joe Biden<\/a> is a really unpopular president \u2014 and that dissatisfaction will make a 2024 showdown with a Republican opponent pretty competitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Those recent surveys, from CNN<\/a> and the Wall Street Journal<\/a>, have shown Biden and his likely Republican opponent, former president Donald Trump<\/a>, essentially tied or with a narrow Trump lead. Polling averages<\/a> reflect the same dynamic. None of it should be surprising \u2014 though Democrats have openly or anonymously been torn about just how much to be worried by these polls. Some longtime Democratic operatives have dismissed the fears from insiders and donors: Former Obama campaign manager Jim Messina, for example, has been quick to tell<\/a> fellow Democrats to relax and \u201cjust take a step back,\u201d while others have argued that it\u2019s too early, or attacked the polls themselves<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But there is<\/em> value in looking at the polls<\/a> because they reveal something else: At this point in the campaign, it\u2019s unarguable that Democrats, especially Biden, are facing a problem with voters of color. And that weaker standing with Black and Latino voters<\/a> specifically seems to be fueling those tight national polling numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That lower level of support for Biden is distinct from previous election cycles. The New York Times\u2019 Nate Cohn, who has been tracking this for some time<\/a>, analyzed last year and this year\u2019s New York Times\/Siena polls of over 1,500 nonwhite respondents. He reports that Biden leads Trump 53 percent to 28 percent among registered nonwhite voters \u2014 a sharp drop off from the 70 percent support Biden garnered from voters of color in the 2020 election<\/a>. Those numbers aren\u2019t exclusive to the Times, either, but show up across surveys. That\u2019s a much worse position than a Democratic candidate has been in for the last few election cycles<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whether this is a new problem or not is debatable (as I\u2019ve written before<\/a>, some Democratic operatives don\u2019t want to concede they have a real problem with nonwhite voters). The causes for this weaker level of support are also up for debate: Some, like the liberal researcher and writer Ruy Teixeira<\/a>, argue that progressive cultural politics are largely to blame, while other Democratic operatives argue this is a problem with messaging). But the trends in polls over the last year are all pointing at something, even if people disagree on the specific numbers at the margins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, to understand these trends, I\u2019ve assembled a few theories, informed by conversations with pollsters, strategists, and Democratic party operatives, for why this polling gap continues. Though there is some disagreement, some of it is due to Biden specifically, to the state of the economy<\/a>, to differences among voters, and perceptions of the Democratic party. Here are three ways to view Biden\u2019s nonwhite voter problem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. It\u2019s just too early<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

No one I spoke with denied that there is something<\/em> going on with Biden and Black and Latino voters \u2014 though it\u2019s taken some time to admit it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe can\u2019t bury our head in the sand and give excuses about why the polling is wrong,\u201d Chuck Rocha, the Democratic Latino consultant who has frequently been critical of his party\u2019s work with voters of color, told me. \u201cTimes have changed and if we continue to rely on these constituencies to vote at such a high number, I\u2019m afraid Democrats will be disappointed unless we put in the work needed to get them there.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The go-to explanation among the Democratic establishment, including the Biden campaign and the Democratic National Committee, is that it\u2019s just too early \u2014 that most Americans, including voters of color across the country, aren\u2019t tuned into the political process at this point in the year and aren\u2019t yet aware of what the Biden administration has accomplished. They argue that is partially because the reelection campaign, though underway, hasn\u2019t ramped up yet. And they say that they still have a lot of time to ramp up their outreach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There\u2019s a lot of truth to that feeling: Coming off of the summer season, political news does not tend to be the priority for most Americans, and Biden\u2019s major accomplishments<\/a> \u2014 the Inflation Reduction Act<\/a>, the Bipartisan Infrastructure Act, the investments in manufacturing and technology in the CHIPS Act \u2014 may not seem to be affecting the lives of the average American.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThere hasn\u2019t been the same kind of linkage between the legislation that Biden has helped pass, his overall agenda, and getting credit for it,\u201d Daniel Cox, a pollster and the director of the American Enterprise Institute\u2019s Survey Center on American Life, told me. \u201c[Voters ask], \u2018Okay, he did this thing, it passed. Do I see any evidence in my own community or my own neighborhood? Are any of these things having any impact in my life?\u2019 I think for a lot of voters, the answer is no.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Campaign and party operatives acknowledge this fact \u2014 but time and messaging alone don\u2019t explain what the polling is showing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. \u201cVoters of color\u201d aren\u2019t monolithic \u2014 and have complicated feelings about the Democrats<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The term \u201cnonwhite\u201d voter itself hides a lot of complexity \u2014 and \u201cDemocrat\u201d itself is only partially helpful. Support among Black Americans<\/a> for Biden, for example, is much higher than among Hispanic or Latino voters. Latino voters tend to be younger than Black voters. Democrats seem to face bigger hurdles to retaining support from Black and Latino men, compared with women, while Biden specifically is underperforming with lower-income voters of color.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bad feelings about the economy are still the single largest issue affecting Biden\u2019s standing with all voters, including voters of color. Though the state of the economy is objectively improving (there\u2019s no recession in sight, inflation is improving, and unemployment remains low), those material conditions take longer to improve when you\u2019re on the lower end of the economic spectrum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis is very similar to 2012 \u2014 Barack Obama had the same issues with the economy and dissatisfaction with the economic recovery. But just like then, we have to tell a story, and keep talking about our solutions,\u201d Kristian Ramos, a Democratic Latino consultant, told me. \u201cWe have work to do. We have the time to do it. And everything that I\u2019ve seen, when people hear about what we\u2019ve done, they like it. It moves these undecided voters to our side.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The youth of the average Black or Latino voter also complicates the picture: younger voters tend to be dissatisfied with Biden, but that does not mean they are switching sides to vote for Republicans en masse. Cox argues that distinguishing between Biden and the Democratic Party is important to understand this dynamic: While younger voters of color might not want to say they\u2019re Biden supporters at this point, they still have an affinity for the Democratic Party and its identity as the more progressive force in national politics<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf you look at the Democratic Party among young people, it tends to be more positive than views of Biden. So it\u2019s possible that Biden has artificially deflated support just because of who he is: his age, his background, his approach to politics, him being an old-school politician in a party that has increasingly become more progressive and wants more dynamism in their leaders,\u201d Cox said. And that dissatisfaction also shows up in polling about Biden\u2019s accomplishments: older voters<\/a> are more willing<\/a> to give Biden credit than younger voters<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some of that gap can be explained by the different ways younger people consume political information, Rocha told me. \u201cThere\u2019s lots of reasons. There\u2019s more than three TV channels. There\u2019s social media. Younger Black and Latino folks are acting much differently than their mothers and fathers,\u201d Rocha said. \u201cThat just means there\u2019s going to be more work needed \u2014most of these campaigns are running broadcast TV commercials, because that\u2019s where older people that are the regular voters are consuming information and you\u2019re not reaching these younger Black and brown voters because they\u2019re consuming all their information on mobile devices and streaming devices.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And there\u2019s a cultural divide: voters of color tend to be a bit more conservative on social issues than the white college-educated voters that have been growing more Democratic in the Trump era, as reflected in the varied opinions by Black<\/a> and Latino<\/a> voters on abortion<\/a>, immigration, gender identity<\/a>, and crime. As Cox\u2019s AEI colleague Texeira has written before<\/a>, those more moderate leanings don\u2019t mean nonwhite voters are running to the GOP, but it does suggest that Democrats have more work to do to overcome the feeling among some nonwhite voters that they are not represented in the Democratic Party\u2019s more progressive identity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. Black and Latino voters tend to be neglected<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Across most of the conversations I had with party insiders one thing was clear: Biden\u2019s campaign and the Democratic apparatus supporting him are off to a good start. They\u2019ve made the right hires of Black and Latino staffers to guide efforts with voters of color, they\u2019ve made huge early investments in advertising to Black and Latino voters in battleground states<\/a>, launched outreach efforts specifically targeted at Black and Latino men,<\/a> and hosted engagement events in Mississippi<\/a>, Florida, Wisconsin, and Kentucky. The next few months will be crucial in seeing whether this engagement begins to pay off, and whether this softer support for Biden bottoms out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf you\u2019re asking me about Joe Biden, the first thing I\u2019d say is, well, you need a person of color leading the campaign. Check. Did you start really early? Well, they started early, whether it\u2019s the DNC or the campaign or Building Back Together (a Democratic-aligned outside group),\u201d Rocha told me. \u201cWe need to admit that there\u2019s an erosion in these constituencies, but that we have plenty of time to get it back to close where it needs to be.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Antjuan Seawright, a Democratic strategist working with the DNC to support Biden and reach Black voters, echoed this explanation, and noted that it\u2019s encouraging to see early investment from the Biden campaign and the DNC in specifically reaching Black and Latino men.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe tend to be called low-propensity voters, but I call them low-priority voters \u2014 we\u2019re the number one targets of misinformation and disinformation, intentionally, to suppress our vote or keep us from participating or being motivated to participate,\u201d he said. \u201cWe have to work overtime to make certain that we continue to invest in Black voters and invest in Black talent and keep us engaged even in a non-election year.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Democrats working to elect Biden are also optimistic that voters will begin to see the contest as less of a referendum on the incumbent president and more of a choice between Biden and Trump once the contours of the GOP primary<\/a> field become clearer. Ramos told me that once that divide becomes clear, it will become easier to pitch Biden to nonwhite voters \u2014 but that pitch requires talking about \u201cstatus threats<\/a>\u201d \u2014 that the betterment of one group of voters isn\u2019t coming at the expense of others, and that a rising tide lifts all boats \u2014 as a way to offset potential cultural criticisms of Democrats by the GOP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Democratic insiders also point to another fact \u2014 while support is lagging for Biden and Democrats, there are no clear signs in polling or in real life of a mass exodus of voters of color to the Republican Party.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe have seen this erosion of support for Democrats, but there hasn\u2019t been a ton of evidence that these folks are flocking to the GOP,\u201d Cox, of AEI, told me. \u201cWhat we\u2019re talking about is Democrats can no longer rely on these voters to be solid Democrats. That doesn\u2019t mean that they\u2019re not winnable, but that means that both parties seem to be well positioned to capture this increasing bloc of voters.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Still, these margins matter \u2014 though 2024 is not likely to be the year that Republicans win a majority of Black or Latino voters, polling this far out does paint a picture of lower enthusiasm that could turn into lower turnout for Biden and congressional Democrats. As my colleague Andrew Prokop has explained<\/a>, the polls conducted over the last year have told a consistent story \u2014 one of near-even support for Biden and his Republican rivals in battleground states and nationally. The lower numbers among Black and Latino voters are an equally consistent finding. And that makes the mission for the Democrats leading these campaigns even more urgent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Christian Paz<\/a> is a senior politics reporter at Vox, where he covers the Democratic Party. He joined Vox in 2022 after reporting on national and international politics for the Atlantic\u2019s politics, global, and ideas teams, including the role of Latino voters in the 2020 election.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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