{"id":13385,"date":"2023-08-08T15:53:42","date_gmt":"2023-08-08T15:53:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/latinosreadytovote.org\/?p=13385"},"modified":"2023-08-10T19:19:03","modified_gmt":"2023-08-10T19:19:03","slug":"californias-changing-demographics-will-further-doom-republicans-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latinosreadytovote.org\/?p=13385","title":{"rendered":"California\u2019s changing demographics will further doom Republicans"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

by George Skelton <\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
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Democrats dominate politics in California and Republicans are doomed for one simple, overriding reason: shifting demographics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In\n short, the GOP\u2019s core constituency is white people and they\u2019re a \ndeclining slice of the California population pie. Conversely, \nDemocrat-backing Latinos and Asian Americans have been expanding their \nslices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That pattern is projected to continue, although at a \nslower pace. So the raw numbers won\u2019t be getting any better for the \nalready weakened California GOP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cRepublicans are heading into a demographic cul-de-sac,\u201d says longtime Democratic strategist Bob Shrum, director of the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics at USC.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis is not just in California, but nationally. It\u2019s happening here first. But it\u2019ll tend to happen around the country.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Republican\n guru Mike Murphy, who has worked on six presidential campaigns and \nmanaged several gubernatorial races \u2014 including former Gov. Arnold \nSchwarzenegger\u2019s in 2003 \u2014 says \u201cthe Republican Party does great with \nwhite voters, particularly older white voters. But they\u2019re shrinking as \npart of the electorate.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cCalifornia is the future. It tends to be\n more non-Caucasian than most states. But we\u2019re heading into that for \nthe rest of the nation. And how are Republicans doing in California? \nThey\u2019ve got to figure out how to compete here or it\u2019s the ice age.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Demographics\n are an eye-glazer, but California\u2019s historic shift has been a political\n game-changer. The state has turned from battleground purple to \none-sided deep blue in 25 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s not solely \u2014 arguably not even mostly \u2014 because of the 1994 \nRepublican-backed anti-illegal immigration initiative, Proposition 187. \nThat measure usually gets the credit or blame, depending on one\u2019s \npolitics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The initiative would have denied most public services, \nincluding schooling, to people living here illegally. Voters approved it\n in a landslide. But federal judges tossed it out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No question, \nthe harsh campaign pitch for Proposition 187 angered and frightened \nmillions of Latinos, turning them even more against the GOP. It also \nsparked a new generation of Latino state political leaders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This \nis Murphy\u2019s analogy: \u201cPretend you\u2019re buying a car. You go to a \nRepublican dealership and the salesman\u2019s first line is, \u2018I want to throw\n your parents and grandparents in jail. Now let me tell you about the \nnew Chevys.\u2019 And the dealership wonders why it isn\u2019t selling any cars.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today,\n six of eight statewide elected officials are people of color \u2014 three \nare Latino, two are Asian American and one is African American. All \neight are Democrats. Republicans haven\u2019t elected a statewide official \nsince 2006. Democrats hold supermajorities in both legislative bodies \nand own California\u2019s U.S. House delegation 46 to 7.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But all this \nprobably would have happened even if Proposition 187 had never existed. \nThe divisive initiative just made the transition to total power easier \nfor Democrats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The GOP demise was inevitable given its \nincreasingly hard-line conservatism as pragmatic moderates left the \nparty. The shrinking GOP was on opposite sides of Democrats and \nindependents on many issues: gun control, abortion, environmental \nprotection, taxes and spending, immigration and a border wall \u2014 not to \nmention their opinions of the immigrant-bashing polarizer in chief, \nPresident Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 1990, Republicans made up 39% of California\u2019s \nregistered voters. Today they\u2019re down to 23.6%. That\u2019s third place \nbehind independents, who since 1990 have soared from 9% to 26.7% \nDemocrats have dropped slightly, from nearly 50% to 44%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s all in the numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 1990, 57% of California\u2019s \npopulation was white. Latinos constituted about 26%, with Asians at 9% \nand African Americans at 7%. In 2020, the population is estimated to be \n39.4% Latino, 38.2% white, 13% Asian and 5.7% black, according to the \nstate Finance Department\u2019s Demographic Research Unit. Projecting to \n2040, the population pie is expected to be about 42% Latino, 35.6% \nwhite, 12.5% Asian and 5.9% black.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Los Angeles County, a little\n over 26% of the population is white and that number is projected to dip\n to 24% by 2040. Latinos now are at nearly 50% and will rise to almost \n53% in 2040.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The reason all this matters politically is that \nvoters of color are snubbing the Republican Party and they\u2019re increasing\n in numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The majority of Latino likely voters, 58%, are \nregistered as Democrats, according to the nonpartisan Public Policy \nInstitute of California. An additional 23% are independents. Only 15% \nare Republicans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Among Asian likely voters, 43% are Democrats and 36% are independents. Republicans claim just 18%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A solid 72% of black voters are Democrats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

White voters? They\u2019re mixed, as they\u2019ve always been: 40% Democrat, 35% Republican and 20% independent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The caveat for Latinos is that they\u2019ve never exerted their full strength on election day. Their turnouts have been subpar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But\n last November \u2014 probably because Trump was their lightning rod \u2014 they \nshowed up in better numbers. They cast 21% of the total votes, according\n to Paul Mitchell, who runs a political data firm. Still, that\u2019s \nunderperforming. They were 26% of registered voters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I called the California Republican Party\u2019s new chairwoman, Jessica Patterson, the first woman and Latina to hold that post.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What can she do to revive the party? \u201cIt\u2019s an incredible challenge,\u201d she acknowledged.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI\u2019m\n focusing on the future, including engaging communities that haven\u2019t \nalways heard from Republicans \u2014 focusing on key issues facing California\n like homelessness and the skyrocketing cost of living \u2026 education, \npublic safety\u2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe need to talk about the Democrats\u2019 failures, but also what we would do instead. We have to be more than a party of \u2018no.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Don\u2019t talk about the wall, however, unless you\u2019re ready to say \u201cno.\u201d Trump\u2019s wall is merely another barrier between Latinos and Republicans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

George Skelton<\/em><\/a> is a Political columnist for LA Times <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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