{"id":13087,"date":"2023-08-05T16:08:28","date_gmt":"2023-08-05T16:08:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/latinosreadytovote.org\/?p=13087"},"modified":"2023-08-05T16:08:28","modified_gmt":"2023-08-05T16:08:28","slug":"yes-the-gop-should-worry-about-texas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latinosreadytovote.org\/?p=13087","title":{"rendered":"Yes, the GOP Should Worry About Texas"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

by Sean Trende<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The past week brought a surge of strange news out of Texas.  First, three Republican congressmen, representing suburban San Antonio, Dallas, and Houston, decided to retire. These retirements are from districts that all saw surprisingly strong showings from Democrats last year, and they collectively set up the possibility that Republicans could emerge from the 2020 election with just a four-seat advantage in the state delegation. Second, we saw polling suggesting that the presidential race in Texas is close (indeed, former Vice President Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in the RealClearPolitics average<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We should be cautious about overinterpreting these factors. The retirements are susceptible to multiple interpretations. Perhaps members dislike being in the minority and realize they would be unlikely to return to the majority until 2022 (assuming Donald Trump loses re-election) or 2026 (if he wins). Perhaps members dislike choosing between defending this president and losing their base \u2013 that almost certainly played a role in Will Hurd\u2019s decision. Yes, the GOP\u2019s map may collapse, but that is a long-term danger of gerrymandering: Creating a large number of districts that weakly favor your party leaves you susceptible to demographic changes over the course of a decade. Likewise, the track record of polls of registered voters more than a year before an election is not so great.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, we have heard this before. At least since the publication of\n \u201cThe Emerging Democratic Majority,\u201d Democrats have hungrily been eyeing\n the Lone Star State, as its growing Hispanic population seemingly \noffers them inroads. I\u2019ve been skeptical of this<\/a>,\n in part because the state\u2019s Hispanic population is relatively \nconservative (compared, at least, to California\u2019s), in part because the \nwhite population is heavily conservative, and in part because the state \nshowed no significant sign of moving politically over this time period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet, there are reasons now to believe these shifts are real, and that\n Texas\u2019s 38 electoral votes are in jeopardy for the GOP. The reason goes\n to a misunderstanding about the nature of Texas, and the bottom line of\n the 2016 election.  In early 2017, David Byler and I concluded our \nanalysis of that election. In it, we wrote<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As you can see, Hillary Clinton had the best performance of any \nDemocrat in recent memory in the so-called \u201cMega-Cities,\u201d winning almost\n two of every three votes cast. In large cities (those with metro areas \nof between 1 million and 5 million people), Clinton performed a bit \nworse than Barack Obama in 2008 and Bill Clinton in 1996. In other \nwords, looking only at large urban areas, she was headed for a big \nvictory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The problem is that the Democratic coalition fell apart below that. \nHer performance in small cities was closer to Al Gore\u2019s 2000 performance\n than either Obama\u2019s or Bill\u2019s landslide wins. Beneath that, her \nperformance was a disaster; she ran behind Michael Dukakis in large \ntowns, about 10 points behind him in small towns, and about 15 points \nbehind him in rural areas.  She ran over 20 points behind Bill in small \ntowns and rural areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nationally, the 2016 election can be viewed as a contest that \nDemocrats won in the nation\u2019s largest metropolitan areas, but lost in \nthe rural areas.  In the lead-up to that election, prognosticators \nfocused on changes in Democrats\u2019 favor in the urban areas, but forgot \njust how many people voted in rural areas and small towns in many \nstates. In particular, in states like Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin<\/a>,\n the Democrats\u2019 weakness in rural areas and small towns overwhelmed \ntheir strong performance in the larger cities. In the Midwest, a \nnear-majority of the votes are still cast in rural areas, small towns \nand large towns. The notable exceptions are Minnesota, where over 60% of\n the votes are cast in metropolitan areas, and in Illinois, which is \ndominated by metro Chicago.  Tellingly, these are the states that Trump \nfailed to flip.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When people think of Texas, they think of rural areas. Cowboys on \nhorseback, cattle roaming the plains, and giant ranches (complete \u2014 for \npeople of a certain age — with J.R. Ewing in a Stetson hat). But while \nthe Llano Estacado \u2013 what we might call \u201cstereotypical Texas\u201d \u2013 does \ncover a large swath of the state, it is relatively underpopulated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The nature of rural America changes dramatically when one crosses the\n 100th meridian. Here, as famously described by John Wesley Powell, \nrainfall drops beneath levels required for reliable crop growth, so a \nflourishing rural population never took hold.  Unlike eastern states, \nstates west of this longitude are better thought of as city states: \nThink of how Denver dominates Colorado, Phoenix dominates Arizona, Salt \nLake City dominates Utah, and Las Vegas dominates Nevada.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Texas straddles the 100th meridian. Eastern Texas is actually an \nextension of the Deep South: It is wooded, humid, has a large number of \nsmall towns and cities, and has some rural African American population. \nThe rest of the state, however, is more like New Mexico or western \nOklahoma.  Much of the land is given over to ranching, and few votes are\n cast there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Instead, votes are cast in the major metropolitan areas. In 2016, the\n Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan areas combined for a \nmajority of the vote in Texas. Donald Trump very nearly lost these areas\n for the GOP for first time in recent memory, receiving just 48% of the \nvote there. Despite winning the popular vote nationally by larger \nmargins than Clinton, Barack Obama took just 43% of the vote here in \n2012, and 45% during his landslide win in 2008.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another 17% of the vote was cast in the metro areas of large cities \nlike San Antonio and Austin.  Obama narrowly lost these areas to Mitt \nRomney in 2012, but Hillary Clinton won them with 55% of the vote. Small\n cities like McAllen and El Paso contributed another 4%. All told, the \nlarge metropolitan areas cast almost three-quarters of the vote in \nTexas, and Hillary Clinton won them with 51% support, a five-point \nimprovement from Obama. Trump more than held his own in the rural areas \nof the state and in the towns, winning almost 70% of the vote (roughly \nthe same vote share as Romney had four years earlier). But it was the \nTrump collapse in the urban areas that dominate the state that made it a\n single-digit race.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the time, Byler and I were unsure what these changes meant.  We wrote<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

In the West South Central, it is largely the same story. Hillary \nClinton\u2019s vote shares in the cities were somewhat larger than Obama\u2019s. \nThis is mostly a function of Texas. We don\u2019t know entirely what to make \nof her showing there \u2013 a large number of voters probably knew their \nvotes didn\u2019t matter, and we note that Trump ran further behind Mitt \nRomney than Clinton ran ahead of Obama in the urban counties. \nRegardless, just as urban Republicanism was the first indicator of \nrealignment in Texas in the 1940s and 1950s, so too could this represent\n the seeds of a Democratic revival in the Lone Star State.  We will have\n to wait and see.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Two years later, Beto O\u2019Rourke shocked the political world by holding\n Sen. Ted Cruz to a three-point margin of victory, while Democrats swept\n local offices and judgeships in Dallas and Harris counties and picked \nup long-held Republican seats in these areas. O\u2019Rourke performed well by\n improving Democrats\u2019 showings in the urban areas. He won the big metro \nareas outright with 52% of the vote and blew Cruz out in San Antonio and\n Austin by 20 points. Once again, the rural areas and the towns saved \nthe Republicans\u2019 candidacy. They cast just a quarter of the vote, but \nCruz won them by a 2-to-1 margin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Could a Democrat really win in 2020? It seems a stretch, but remember\n that Mitt Romney won Texas by 16 points, Donald Trump won by nine, and \nCruz won by just three. These are not good trendlines for the GOP. \nStates do shift their partisanship quickly at times. George H.W. Bush \nwon New Hampshire by 26 points in 1988 and New Jersey by 14; in 1996 New\n Jersey went for Clinton by 18 points, while New Hampshire was a \n10-point Clinton win. That same year, West Virginia was a 15-point \nClinton win; eight years later George W. Bush won it by 13.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We might write off 2018 to the bad GOP year and Cruz\u2019s unpopularity. \nBut that requires ignoring some substantial evidence to the contrary. \nOne has to ignore that John McCain won the state by double digits in a \n2008 environment that was probably even worse for the GOP than 2018, \nwhile John Cornyn won re-election against a hyped Democratic opponent \nhandily.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Most importantly, one has to ignore the nature of political \ncoalitions in the Age of Trump. Trump has generally improved GOP \nfortunes in rural American and in the towns, and in states like \nWisconsin, Michigan and Ohio, all of which has generally helped the \nRepublican Party.  But there is little doubt that the GOP has suffered \nsubstantial losses in the suburban areas that once formed the backbone \nof the party while doing little to advance its cause in the major \ncities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Once one realizes that these urban\/suburban areas cast a supermajority of the vote in Texas, one realizes quickly that the rural and small-town areas can\u2019t keep the Republican Party afloat in Texas forever. I wouldn\u2019t bet the farm, or the cattle ranch if one prefers, on Texas turning blue this cycle. But the state is not safe for Republicans in 2020 either, and\u00a0it will likely be very competitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sean Trende is senior elections analyst for RealClearPolitics. He is a co-author of the 2014 Almanac of American Politics and author of The Lost Majority<\/a>. He can be reached at strende@realclearpolitics.com<\/a>. Follow him on Twitter @SeanTrende<\/a>.<\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

by Sean Trende The past week brought a surge of strange news out of Texas.  First, three Republican congressmen, representing suburban San Antonio, Dallas, and Houston, decided to retire. These retirements are from districts that […]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13088,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[76],"tags":[85,82],"class_list":{"0":"post-13087","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-texas","8":"tag-politics","9":"tag-texas"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinosreadytovote.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13087","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinosreadytovote.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinosreadytovote.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinosreadytovote.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinosreadytovote.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=13087"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/latinosreadytovote.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13087\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13089,"href":"https:\/\/latinosreadytovote.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13087\/revisions\/13089"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinosreadytovote.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/13088"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinosreadytovote.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=13087"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinosreadytovote.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=13087"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinosreadytovote.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=13087"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}