{"id":13084,"date":"2023-08-05T16:06:57","date_gmt":"2023-08-05T16:06:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/latinosreadytovote.org\/?p=13084"},"modified":"2023-08-05T16:06:58","modified_gmt":"2023-08-05T16:06:58","slug":"the-democrats-texas-sized-opportunity","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latinosreadytovote.org\/?p=13084","title":{"rendered":"The Democrats\u2019 Texas-Sized Opportunity"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The key to winning the Lone Star State now lies in the suburbs. Once Democrats crack the code, it will change American politics.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

by <\/em>Josh Kraushaar <\/em> <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

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For doom-and-gloom Democrats who believe that the biases of the electoral college will permanently lock them out of the presidency, the growing competitiveness of Texas is a useful reminder of the political future of America.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Two of the state\u2019s native sons, Beto O\u2019Rourke and Julian Castro, are \nrunning for the Democratic presidential nomination. Sen. John Cornyn is \npreparing for a competitive reelection, his first since being elected \nnearly two decades ago. And a wave of Republican retirements is giving \nDemocrats a chance to significantly close the partisan gap in the \nstate\u2019s congressional delegation, solidifying Speaker Nancy Pelosi\u2019s \ncontrol of the House.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This shouldn\u2019t be a surprise. Despite President Trump\u2019s upset victory\n in 2016, he only carried the Lone Star State by 9 points, nearly \nmatching his margin of victory in traditional swing states like Iowa and\n Ohio. And unlike the GOP-trending Midwestern battlegrounds, filled with\n blue-collar white voters, Texas has one of the most diverse and \nsuburban populations in the entire country. It\u2019s eventually going to \nbecome a presidential battleground, if it isn\u2019t already.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will 2020 will be the year when Trump\u2019s boorish nativism will turn \nthe state purple? In a good night for Democrats, it\u2019s very plausible \nthat they could win Texas (and its 38 electoral votes), pick up four or \nfive of the state\u2019s House seats, and give Cornyn a run for his money. \nBut it\u2019s also possible that the state could become a financial sinkhole,\n tempting bullish strategists to spend millions there with minimal \nresults.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The biggest question for Democrats is this: Was 2018 the beginning of\n a realignment, the first election in a state that\u2019s rapidly trending to\n the center? Or were last year\u2019s midterms a high-water mark for the \nparty, fueled by Trump\u2019s polarizing nature and the tens of millions \npoured into O\u2019Rourke\u2019s close-but-no-cigar Senate campaign? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the 2016 results are something of a baseline for next year\u2019s \nelections, Democrats will face challenges in maximizing their \nopportunities. In the six Texas districts that House Democrats are targeting<\/a>,\n Trump won a majority of the vote in five of them. (Trump won 50 percent\n of the vote in the district of retiring Rep. Kenny Marchant, 52 percent\n in the districts of Reps. Chip Roy, Michael McCaul and retiring Rep. \nPete Olson, and 53 percent in the district of Rep. John Carter.) Only \nretiring Rep. Will Hurd\u2019s district is a solid bet to flip. Meanwhile, \nDemocrats face a muddled primary to take on Cornyn, with few of the \nprospects showing they can match O\u2019Rourke\u2019s early energy in the last \ncycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But if those districts continue to diversify, with college-educated \nnewcomers heading to the state\u2019s booming suburbs for job opportunities, \nTrump\u2019s narrow victories in the battleground House districts threaten to\n turn in the Democrats\u2019 favor. In 2018, O\u2019Rourke won a narrow majority \nof the vote in three of the GOP-held seats in the state, and tallied \n49.9 percent of the vote in a fourth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More importantly, Democrats\u2019 ability to compete in Texas largely \nhinges on whether Democrats nominate a moderate presidential candidate, \nlike Joe Biden. Biden leads Trump by 4 points, 48 to 44 percent, in a \nJune Quinnipiac poll of Texas voters. Trump led all the other leading Democratic candidates<\/a>\n in the same survey. If Democrats nominate a strong candidate at the top\n of the ticket, it will also help downballot candidates win in tough \ndistricts. But if a progressive like Elizabeth Warren emerges from the \nprimaries, Democratic congressional candidates will be forced to \ndistance themselves from their own party\u2019s nominee.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The stakes are high. The changing politics in Texas offer Democrats \nthe key to breaking through the gridlock that\u2019s become so depressingly \nroutine in the aftermath of tragedies like this weekend\u2019s mass murders \nin El Paso and Dayton. The wanton murder of 22 Walmart shoppers in El \nPaso, committed by a white supremacist with deep-seated hate towards \nHispanics, hits especially close to home for Texans. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

When Texas Land Commissioner George P. Bush takes on his own party<\/a>\n for \u201cdownplaying\u201d the growing threat of white-supremacist terror, you \nbetter believe he recognizes the politics of his home state are \nchanging. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Suburban voters have grown sick of Trump\u2019s mean-spirited politics, alarmed by the rise of white nationalism, and increasingly supportive of gun-control measures<\/a>.\n Despite the booming economy, they\u2019re prepared to vote their values in \nthe next election. They now control the direction of their state and, \npotentially, the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If Texas becomes a bona fide battleground, Republicans won\u2019t be able to win the presidency by simply focusing on their base. Suburbanites in swing states, from Philadelphia to Phoenix, will become the most important constituency to win over. And blocking bipartisan gun-control proposals<\/a> and tolerating bigoted rhetoric will carry a significant political cost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Josh Kraushaar<\/a> is the political editor for National Journal, and\u00a0pens the weekly “Against the Grain” column. Kraushaar has held several positions since joining Atlantic Media in 2010, including as managing editor for politics at National Journal, and as executive editor and editor-in-chief of The Hotline. In addition to his management of The Hotline, Kraushaar plays a critical role in shaping National Journal’s overall political coverage. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The key to winning the Lone Star State now lies in the suburbs. Once Democrats crack the code, it will change American politics. by Josh Kraushaar For doom-and-gloom Democrats who believe that the biases of […]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13085,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[85,82],"class_list":["post-13084","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-uncategorized","tag-politics","tag-texas"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinosreadytovote.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13084","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinosreadytovote.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinosreadytovote.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinosreadytovote.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinosreadytovote.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=13084"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/latinosreadytovote.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13084\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13086,"href":"https:\/\/latinosreadytovote.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13084\/revisions\/13086"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinosreadytovote.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/13085"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinosreadytovote.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=13084"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinosreadytovote.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=13084"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinosreadytovote.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=13084"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}