{"id":13081,"date":"2023-08-05T16:05:19","date_gmt":"2023-08-05T16:05:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/latinosreadytovote.org\/?p=13081"},"modified":"2023-08-05T16:05:19","modified_gmt":"2023-08-05T16:05:19","slug":"texas-faces-turbulent-political-moment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latinosreadytovote.org\/?p=13081","title":{"rendered":"Texas faces turbulent political moment"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

by Reid Wilson <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

For a quarter century, Texas Republicans have run a ruby-red state, building a conservative bastion where government is limited.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now,\n the mounting tensions of racially motivated rhetoric, a polarizing \npresident and Republican infighting have rocked Texas\u2019s political \nleadership to its core. And the state may soon face a tipping point \nbrought on by shifting coalitions of voters who want change, in Austin \nand Washington.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The tumult is creating turnover that has startled even the closest observers of Texas politics. In just the last week, Reps. Kenny Marchant (R), Pete Olson (R), Will Hurd (R) and Mike Conaway ( R) have said they will retire rather than seek a new term in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The\n nation\u2019s attention has been focused on Texas this week because of the \nkillings of 22 people by a long shooter who attacked a Walmart in El \nPaso. The shootings were even more disturbing for a manifesto allegedly \nwritten by the accused shooter that described an \u201cinvasion\u201d of \nimmigrants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So far, newcomers to Texas from blue states \u2014 states \nwith stricter gun control laws, a stronger social safety net and a \nlooser approach to immigrants \u2014 have been bigger change agents in the \nstate than Hispanics, a large number of whom have tended to stay home on\n Election Day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIn Texas, we have been waiting for what\u2019s called a\n Pete Wilson moment for a quarter century,\u201d said Cal Jillson, a \npolitical scientist at Southern Methodist University, referring to the \nformer California governor who led the campaign to pass a controversial \nanti-immigrant law in 1994, setting the state on a trajectory toward its\n current liberal status. \u201cA Pete Wilson moment that would awake the \nHispanic electorate has never come.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It’s far from clear that the \nEl Paso shooting \u2014 the fifth mass shooting in Texas in the last five \nyears \u2014 will be that moment, though its potential for further roiling \nthe state\u2019s politics is obvious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, population growth in Texas has given Democrats new opportunities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The\n Texas miracle that three successive Republican governors have touted \nhas attracted millions of new residents in search of jobs, and those \nnewcomers, many of them from California, are shifting the state\u2019s \npolitics. One percent of the state of California, with a much more \nliberal population, has moved to Texas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Four of the 10 American \ncounties that have added the most new residents since 2010 are in Texas;\n four of the 10 counties adding residents at the fastest pace are there,\n too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016 won 569,000 more votes than Barack Obama did in Texas in 2012; 568,000 of those votes came from the 20 largest counties in the state, Progress Texas<\/a> found. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump\n won Texas\u2019s electoral votes by a slimmer margin in 2016 than any \nRepublican presidential nominee since Bob Dole in 1996, when Texan and \nReform Party nominee Ross Perot was on the ballot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cUnder normal \ncircumstances, Texas is still a red state. But normal circumstances are \nsuspended so long as Trump is a part of our national politics, because \nhe destabilizes everything,\u201d Jillson said. \u201cThe natural progression of \ndemographic change [is] accelerated by Trump destabilizing all of our \nnational politics.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 2018 midterm elections, in which Democrats made inroads in fast-growing suburbs around Dallas, Austin, San Antonio and Houston, shook some in the GOP. Then-Rep. Beto O\u2019Rourke (D) came within 3 percentage points of beating Sen. T<\/a>Ted Cruz (R) \u2014 and, crucially, O\u2019Rourke won more raw votes than Hillary Clinton did in 2016.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThere\u2019s the organization and motivation of Democrats finally getting\n their act together on the ground,\u201d said Corbin Casteel, a longtime \nRepublican strategist in Austin. \u201cThere\u2019s the natural pendulum swing \nback toward the middle.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are signs that some Texas \nRepublicans want to get out of the way, before change is forced upon \nthem. Multiple sources say there are more retirements to come. Six other\n Texas Republicans won election in 2018 by margins of less than 10 \npercentage points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ironclad Republican control in Austin is at \nrisk, too. Democrats once mired in a deep minority in the state House \nhave gained 19 seats over the past two elections. They are now just nine\n seats away from gaining control of the 150-member chamber \u2014 and, \ncritically, a seat at the redistricting table after the 2020 census.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In\n recent weeks, a conservative activist has rocked Austin with claims \nthat he has a recording of the new House Speaker, Dennis Bonnen (R), \nurging him to target 10 incumbent Republicans in next year\u2019s primary \nelections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bonnen, serving his first term as Speaker, has denied \nthe allegations. The activist, Michael Quinn Sullivan, has not released \nthe full tape.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhen you don\u2019t have anyone to fight, you fight yourselves,\u201d Casteel said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The\n suburban women who handed Democrats control of Congress are key to the \nparty\u2019s hopes of capitalizing on the tumultuous moment in Texas \npolitics, Jillson said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhite suburban women are temporarily part\n of the Democratic coalition in Texas, but I wouldn\u2019t think of them as \nfirm, long-term members,\u201d he said. \u201cThose women are responding to Trump,\n but also to these mass shootings.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But whether they are arriving in sufficient numbers to put the state in play remains to be seen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt\u2019s not a purple state, but it\u2019s trending the other way right now. Democrats still have to win something for it to be considered a purple state,\u201d Casteel said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reid Wilson is Political writer for the Hill. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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