{"id":13075,"date":"2023-08-05T16:01:55","date_gmt":"2023-08-05T16:01:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/latinosreadytovote.org\/?p=13075"},"modified":"2023-08-05T16:01:56","modified_gmt":"2023-08-05T16:01:56","slug":"will-texas-turn-blue-in-2020-or-simply-become-more-deeply-divided","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latinosreadytovote.org\/?p=13075","title":{"rendered":"Will Texas turn blue in 2020 or simply become more deeply divided?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

by Ren\u00e9e Cross and Richard Murray<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

With three Texans among the Democratic presidential contenders, talk of Texas as a swing state is louder than ever. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The shift is driven by a new divide in Texas politics, with important\n implications for 2020 and beyond. Throughout the 1990s, Texans in the \nbig metropolitan areas \u2014 Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin and San \nAntonio \u2014 voted much like those in outlying counties, except for the \nstaunchly Democratic counties along the Texas-Mexico border.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

That began to change in 2000. George W. Bush got 68% of the vote in \nnon-metro counties with predominantly Anglo populations, compared to 60%\n in the big metro counties. The gap had reached 19% by 2012. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Donald Trump became the first GOP nominee since Barry Goldwater to \nwin in Texas while losing the metro vote; his 75% margin in the \nnon-metro Anglo counties carried him to a statewide win in 2016.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Two years later, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz lost all four metro areas to U.S.\n Rep. Beto O\u2019Rourke, getting less than 45% of the vote. Winning 73% of \nthe non-metro vote allowed him to carry Texas by 2.6% \u2014 the closest \nstatewide margin for a Republican since 1994.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What happened?  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The answer is rapid demographic change<\/a> in\n the state\u2019s metro areas, coupled with the impact of polarizing \npolitical issues, including President Trump\u2019s immigration policies. The \nlatest census figures show the Latino population is growing far more \nquickly than the non-Latino white population.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Metro Texas and the state\u2019s outlying Anglo counties were similar in \nboth demographics and partisan voting patterns for most of the latter \nhalf of the 20th century, even as high birth rates and migration from \nelsewhere in Texas and nearby states propelled urban growth after World \nWar II. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Those metro counties boomed in the 1990s, a trend that has only \naccelerated. Between 2010 and 2018, the 27 metro counties added almost 3\n million people, compared to just 375,000 for the 199 \nnon-metro, non-bordercounties \u2014 growth that profoundly altered the \ndemographic makeup of the state\u2019s metropolitan areas. Anglo growth \nslowed as birth rates dropped and migration from elsewhere in Texas and \nneighboring states slowed; metro growth now is driven by international \nimmigration and higher birth rates among non-Anglo urban residents. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Immigration policy has added fuel to today\u2019s partisan divide. Much of\n the 2010 Tea Party surge was driven by Anglo voters concerned about \nimmigration. That was reinforced by Trump\u2019s rise, and Texans are divided\n by the president\u2019s tough stances on the border wall, plans to deport \nundocumented immigrants and the threat of tariffs on Mexico. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The president remains popular among the party faithful, but the \nRepublican brand has shown signs of damage among affluent, educated \nAnglos in Texas\u2019 metro areas. Voter registration and participation have \nincreased among Latinos and Asian Americans, as well as among young \nvoters, all groups that are trending Democratic. The sizeable African \nAmerican urban vote is reliably Democratic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Republicans are now a clear minority in the large metro areas of Texas. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The shift is illustrated by Fort Bend County, a suburban area \nsouthwest of Houston with large Latino, Asian American and African \nAmerican populations. Mitt Romney defeated President Obama there by \n15,000 votes in 2012, and all local Republicans easily won election. In \n2016, Trump lost Fort Bend by 18,000 votes. In 2018, O\u2019Rourke topped \nCruz by 31,000 votes, and all 10 Republicans in contested countywide \nelections were defeated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What does this mean for 2020? Metropolitan growth in Texas will \ncertainly continue, along with its ever-growing share of the vote \u2014 68% \nof the vote in 2016. And the latest census estimates suggest the Latino \npopulation is increasingly choosing to live in metro areas. Expect a \ngrowing difference in how metro Texas votes compared with the outlying \ncounties. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump is likely to be the GOP nominee, running again on a platform of\n tighter immigration controls. Will the Democratic nominee contest \nTexas? Perhaps, but Democrats could win without Texas.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Not so the Republicans. If they want to continue to lead from the White House, they must win Texas.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ren\u00e9e Cross <\/em><\/a>is the Senior director at Hobby School of Public Affairs, University of Houston.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Richard Murray <\/em><\/a>is a Professor at Hobby School of Public Affairs, University of Houston.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

by Renée Cross and Richard Murray With three Texans among the Democratic presidential contenders, talk of Texas as a swing state is louder than ever.  The shift is driven by a new divide in Texas […]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13076,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[76],"tags":[85,82],"class_list":{"0":"post-13075","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-texas","8":"tag-politics","9":"tag-texas"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinosreadytovote.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13075","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinosreadytovote.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinosreadytovote.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinosreadytovote.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinosreadytovote.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=13075"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/latinosreadytovote.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13075\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13077,"href":"https:\/\/latinosreadytovote.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13075\/revisions\/13077"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinosreadytovote.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/13076"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinosreadytovote.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=13075"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinosreadytovote.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=13075"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinosreadytovote.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=13075"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}